Should Joe Biden Step Aside?

If Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, our democracy will be replaced by an authoritarian government. Joe Biden has delivered as president. But is he the best candidate to defeat Trump?

Welcome to the End of Democracy in America

Democracy in any country is in trouble when too many citizens believe that government is failing them badly. They then look to a daddy-like savior to take control and make everything better. Donald Trump’s core message is that he is that savior. As he said at this year’s Conservative Political Action Convention (CPAC), “These are the stakes of this election: Our country is being destroyed and the only thing standing between you and its obliteration is me.”

With Nicki Haley’s defeat in her home state, the wannabe-dictator lurches toward his third presidential candidacy, backed by his MAGA acolytes, by spineless Republican politicians and judges, by Christian nationalist religious zealots, and by fabulously-wealthy-but-we-still-want-more businesspeople. And Trump’s supporters at CPAC are not shy about what they want.

Dan Rather¹ reported that “[t]his year they aren’t just saying the quiet part out loud — they are screaming it.” To big applause from the audience and an “amen” from moderator Steve Bannon, right-wing conspiracy theorist Jack Prosobiec put it this way: “I just wanted to say, welcome to the end of democracy. We are here to overthrow it completely. We didn’t get all the way there on January 6, but we will endeavor to get rid of it.” He then held up a Christian cross and added, “We’ll replace it with this right here. That’s right, because all glory, all glory is not to government, all glory is to God."

This isn’t just talk. In their 8-1 decision on February 16th, the nine Republican justices of the Alabama Supreme Court ruled that embryos outside of the uterus are children². The implications are profound: IVF fertility treatments often discard unused embryos, so IVF treatments must stop in Alabama. Since about 2% of births in the US result from IVF³, this ruling impacts many people’s lives.

The impact on people’s lives is shocking enough, but the rationale from the court’s chief justice, Tom Parker, a blatant appeal to Christian theology⁴, is even more shocking. He wrote: “In summary, the theologically based view of the sanctity of life adopted by the People of Alabama encompasses the following: (1) God made every person in His image; (2) each person therefore has a value that far exceeds the ability of human beings to calculate; and (3) human life cannot be wrongfully destroyed without incurring the wrath of a holy God, who views the destruction of His image as an affront to Himself.”

As Rather summarizes, “The right wing wants to topple our democracy and replace it with Trump’s authoritarian rule. This is not hyperbole. It is not fear-mongering. They are saying it. Out loud.”

Saving American Democracy

It has taken 40 years for the Reagan revolution’s unfettered free-market capitalism and supply-side myth to get us into the mess we’re in, with so many Americans struggling and angry. It will take decades to undo the damage, not withstanding fixing the longstanding wrongs of our version of democracy.

No matter what you think about the long-term project to improve our democracy, one thing is clear: If we re-elect Donald Trump, his administration will be authoritarian with a Christian nationalist agenda. Remember, this is a man who said “I have an Article II, where I have the right to do whatever I want as president.”

This time his team has a plan and they will move swiftly and effectively to take control of the country. If you want to understand the plan’s scope and magnitude, look at the 960-page Project 2025 book produced by The Heritage Foundation, a reactionary think tank masquerading as a conservative think tank. From the preface (p. xiv): “Our goal is to assemble an army of aligned, vetted, trained, and prepared conservatives to go to work on Day One to deconstruct the Administrative State.”

No doubt, many of the proposed changes will be challenged in the courts. But Trump, having installed right-wing reactionary judges throughout the federal judiciary, can expect far greater success in court than during his first term.

For our democracy to live to fight another day, we must defeat Donald Trump’s attempt to be re-elected and then to govern as King Donald!

The Joe Biden Question

The media is full of angst about Joe Biden’s ability to be President for another term. He’s old! He tripped. He didn’t remember the date his son died. He referred to François Mitterrand instead of Emmanuel Macron.

Just Google “Biden confused” and you’ll get plenty of hits. Articles with titles like “Biden’s biggest gaffes: Muddling up wars, forgetting names and dozing off mid-event” and “Biden seemingly confuses Britney Spears and Taylor Swift”. The headlines go on and on. They must sell a lot of ads.

Democrats are quick to point out that Donald Trump is also old (77 to Biden’s 81), in worse physical condition than Biden, talks in “word salads,” and often confuses people and places. Besides, he’s a prolific liar, an accused felon, and a convicted perpetrator of business fraud, sexual assault (aka rape), and defamation.

King Donald aside, what about Joe Biden as president?

Joe Biden is not exciting. He looks and sounds old. He’s not a great orator. Our country needs a new generation of leadership and there’s plenty of talent waiting in the wings. Of course, I voted for Biden in 2020, all the while mumbling about how I wished there was a better choice. Nevertheless, I cajoled anyone who would even pretend to listen that they must vote for Biden, not sit it out or vote for a third-party candidate. I made that case in an October 2020 blog post.

Joe Biden still doesn’t excite me.

But he sure has delivered: He and his administration have accomplished more good for the country than any administration since I started voting in 1972, all with the narrowest of Democratic majorities in the House and Senate. And if it weren’t for Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, he and the Democrats would have passed the most significant voting rights legislation in decades.

Sure, there was the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. He should have pressured Israel to be more measured in its response to October 7^th than we were in our response to September 11^th, and he should be exerting tremendous pressure now on Israel to make real progress on a two-state solution. Who knows, maybe he’s doing this behind the scenes.

So, yes, I believe that Joe Biden would continue to deliver if he is elected to a second term and remains healthy. If voters also flipped the House, Biden could even usher in a New New Deal (parse that however you like), which would be pretty amazing for a boring, middle-of-the road leader like Joe Biden. He sure knows how to get stuff done in Washington.

Asking the Wrong Question

In a provocative and controversial podcast, influential NY Times opinion columnist Ezra Klein argues that being a good, or even great, president is different than being a good candidate. Given the imperative to prevent Trump’s re-election, the important question is whether Joe Biden can be a good enough candidate to defeat Trump. Nothing else matters.

Klein makes a compelling case that Biden can’t be a good enough candidate. I urge you to listen to the podcast yourself (there’s also a transcript if you prefer to read it) and the link above will work even if you are not a Times subscriber.

I’ll summarize Klein’s argument:

1. Yes, Biden won in 2020, but he is not nearly the campaigner today that he was then. He lacks the energy and intensity of 2020. Watch videos of his campaign speeches then and now. (I’d add: This is understandable. Biden is doing the most stressful job imaginable in the most hostile political environment imaginable.)

2. Despite all that he has accomplished, Biden has a low approval rating. He’s behind Trump in the polls, yet he and his team limit his public appearances. Biden even declined an interview during the Super Bowl, the nation’s most-watched TV event. Yes, there are risks to such an interview, but when you’re behind you take every opportunity to get your message out to the voters. Biden has given fewer than 100 interviews during his presidency, compared to more than 400 by Obama and more than 300 by Trump at the same point in their presidencies.

3. Polls indicate that 70 to 80 percent of voters are worried about his age. This might be ageism, and Trump is almost as old, but, for whatever reasons, justified or not, voters are concerned.

4. It might seem too late for the Democratic Party to choose another presidential candidate, but it is not if Joe Biden could be convinced to step aside and free up his delegates. If he stepped aside soon before the Democratic Convention in August, the convention delegates could choose a new candidate from among the many talented Democratic leaders who would throw their hat into the ring.

In addition to Klein’s arguments, I think that there are three other important factors working against Biden being a good candidate this year:

1. It is no accident that both parties devote enormous effort to getting “their voters” to show up at the polls. Marcela Valdez’s article “The 2024 Election May Be Decided by Nonvoters. If They Vote” argues that “[a]mbivalent voters may be more attracted to candidates who deviate from the political norm.” Young people are the most ambivalent voters and they are especially motivated to show up for candidates outside of the political mainstream. It is hard to imagine a candidate more in the political mainstream than Joe Biden.

2. Young people are among the most angry at Biden’s handling of the Gaza/Israel conflict. We’ve already seen organized efforts in the Michigan primary to signal that anger by voting for “uncommitted” rather than for Biden. Indeed, 13.2% of voters chose Uncommitted. This is more than 100,000 votes. Given that Biden won Michigan in 2020 by about 150,000 votes, this is significant.

3. Black voters have traditionally supported Democratic candidates, but there are signs of waning enthusiasm for Biden among Black voters. One poll found that 22% of Black voters in six battleground states would support Trump in an election held today (as compared to 8% in 2020). More likely, like other disenchanted voters, disenchanted Black voters might sit out the 2024 election.

It is impossible to know how these factors will affect voter participation among young people. Will young people who would have otherwise showed up to defend the country against Trump stay home because they’re also disenchanted with Biden? We simply don’t know.

Klein harkened back to Senator Charles Sumner’s welcome to the delegates at the convention that nominated Lincoln “whose duty it will be to organize victory.” Klein suggests that Democrats use their 2024 Convention to organize victory.

He has a second podcast to explore how political conventions work and could be orchestrated to choose a good candidate.

The Pushback

Klein’s suggestion has met with vociferous pushback from some Democratic leaders and even the left-leaning punditry.

MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell gave a fervent rebuttal making essentially two arguments: (1) Modern conventions are about making good television not about choosing good candidates; and (2) television doesn’t capture the workings of the presidency, but people who have seen Biden working behind closed doors believe that he’s fully capable of doing the job.

The latter is basically an indirect way of saying that Biden would be a good president, but ignores the question of whether Biden will be a good candidate.

In his popular Substack, Robert Reich described Klein’s (and others’) arguments then took a poll among his readers asking “should Biden step aside and allow Democrats to have an open convention to choose their candidate?” Of the over 4,000 responses, 55% answered yes, 10% answered that an open convention is too risky, and 28% answered that Biden is still the best candidate.

The next day Reich reported his surprise at this outcome, reiterated Klein’s arguments, and said explicitly that he does not endorse Klein’s view. He again took a poll on the same question, this time receiving 19,410 responses, 60% saying Biden is the best candidate, 11% saying an open convention is too risky, and 25% saying Biden should step aside. These polls are certainly not scientific but given Reich’s popularity among liberals, even 25% saying he should step aside is cause for concern.

Klein’s fellow Times opinion columnist Jamelle Bouie wrote that Klein “underrated the real odds that a brokered convention would end in political disaster for the Democratic Party.” Bouie argues that pre-1968 conventions really did choose the candidates in a process dominated by party elites, but that after the disastrous 1968 Democratic Convention the modern system was created, in which “[t]he voters, not the insiders, matter most.”

Generally, I agree with Bouie. In this year’s Democratic primary, however, there are no serious contenders other than Biden. On my ballot, the choice was Biden or “No Preference,” hardly giving me a feeling that my vote mattered.

My View

If you had talked to me a week ago about Biden not being the Democratic presidential candidate, I would have been incredulous, and I would have urged you to fight hard for him even if we weren’t excited by his candidacy.

Then, while my wife and I were hiking, she told me that she had listened to Ezra Klein’s podcast and that I should listen. Thinking the topic ridiculous, I kinda brushed her off and said I would listen sometime. But she pushed back and said I should do it now. So, I did.

His distinction between a person being a good president and being a good candidate immediately struck me as an important insight, something that, in retrospect, is obvious, but I’d never before seen or heard it articulated.

My next question was whether Biden could be forced to step aside in favor of a different candidate. Klein’s answer was powerful: Joe Biden would have to be convinced, not forced, to step aside — which Klein characterized as an heroic act for the good of the country — and only then could an effort to select a better candidate get underway. Biden’s closest advisers, friends, and family would have to do the convincing. I have no idea what those people think, but I’m glad that Klein has raised this issue publicly, planting a seed. We’ll have to see if the seed sprouts.

Is it a good idea? Truthfully, there is high risk in the status quo and high risk in making a change. Shocking as it is, there’s reason to worry that Trump could defeat Biden. All of the polls and other indicators point to a close election. How many Republican voters who are disgusted with Trump as their candidate will actually vote for Biden? How many will stay home? How many Democratic voters will sit out the election because they think that Biden’s too old, too weak, or ignored the plight of Palestinians? How many young people will sit out the election because they don’t want to vote for either of the old geezers?

Nobody really knows. So let’s just say that the relative risks of Biden remaining our candidate and Biden stepping aside are balanced.

But I do think back to the 2008 Democratic Party primaries. Barack Obama’s entry into the race upped the energy level, excitement, and willingness for people to work tirelessly toward his victory. His “yes, we can” motto captured the excitement. Clinton was the status quo — extremely competent, experienced, accomplished, smart, hard working, with the potential to be our first woman president. But it was Obama’s newness and bold sense of hope and promise that lit the fires.

We could be in that place now if Joe Biden, the competent, accomplished, status quo candidate, were to decide to step aside and support a younger, bold, charismatic nominee. I certainly don’t know who that person should be, but maybe Joe Biden could help us figure that out.

I applaud Ezra Klein’s courage to say out loud what many are probably quietly thinking.  I hope that his courage is rewarded by President Biden and his inner circle seriously considering stepping aside to give the country the gift of a new generation of leadership. Biden’s courage and leadership to step aside could be a fitting capstone to his decades of public service.

1. For younger readers, Dan Rather in his prime was one of the most respected journalists in America. He is now in his 90’s and writes Steady on Substack.

2. Such embryos are at most 200-300 cells, not remotely resembling a human. See The Science of IVF for an overview, with pictures.

3. https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/21/health/ivf-egg-freezing-explainer-wellness/index.html

4. See pp. 32-38 of the decision.